What the “worst call” in NFL history teaches us about decision making

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In 2015, during Super Bowl XLIX, the Seattle Seahawks held a 24–21 lead against the New England Patriots with 26 seconds remaining on the clock.

Pete Carroll, the Seahawks’ coach, chose to throw the ball instead of running it, resulting in an interception and a win for the New England Patriots.

Pete’s decision to pass the ball was infamously dubbed the “worst call in NFL history.”

But was this really ‘the worst call in NFL history’ as the media claimed?

Under Pete’s tenure as coach (up to 2015), the Seahawks had:

• Reached the postseason 10 out of Carroll’s 13 seasons
• Advanced to the divisional round 7 times
• Won 2 NFC Championships and 1 Super Bowl

Pete’s coaching record speaks volumes about his decision-making prowess.

Furthermore, in that NFL season, there were approximately 200 pass attempts from the one-yard line, and up until that game, none had resulted in interceptions.

Yet, despite his history of good decision-making and the facts at hand, Pete’s call was deemed a terrible decision.

Annie Duke, a former professional poker player, wrote in her thought-provoking book “Thinking in Bets”:

“We judge the quality of our decisions based on the outcome, not the other way around. But you can have a good outcome despite a bad decision, and you can have a bad outcome even though the quality of your decision was good.”

As humans, our thinking is often biased as we tend to link good outcomes to good decision-making.

However, this overlooks the reality that we don’t always control the results of our actions.

What we do have control over is the decisions we make.

Outcomes are therefore not indicators of the quality of decisions that lead to them.

This bias in assigning good outcomes to good decisions is referred to as resulting: a cognitive error that involves judging decisions based on their outcomes rather than the quality of the decision-making process.

There are a few important lessons from this:

1. You influence the outcome, you don’t control it:
   We can’t always control the outcomes of our decisions.
   Some actions are straightforward — if you use a knife to cut something, it will cut it.
   Others, especially those involving complex processes with multiple potential outcomes, can only be influenced through sound decision-making.
2. Don’t judge the outcome, judge the decision:
   Don’t be too hard on yourself when you’ve used all available information to make the most informed choice possible.
   Avoid falling prey to the fallacy of discounting the role of luck in some cases.
   It’s tempting to attribute a favorable outcome solely to a great decision, when in reality, things could have gone differently.
   The true measure of an outcome should be the quality of the decision-making process — how well-informed and reasoned it was.
3. Work on your decision-making skills:
   Continuously refine your decision-making skills by focusing on the process that leads to decisions rather than fixating on the outcomes. Learn from decisions that result in adverse or unforeseen outcomes, using that feedback to improve your decision-making process.
   If the process is sound, you’ll make more right decisions than wrong ones in situations where multiple decisions are required (in the long term).

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